Consensus PnL -$20K · win rate 52% (4795–4490, n=9285) · was PM monthly #895 · holds 38 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-20.4K
Record
4795W / 4490L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 9285 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1602
Source
PM monthly #895
Trades
364
Markets
10,904
Volume
$4.3M
Top consensus positions
38 in listed consensus markets · 22 of 38 on the consensus side (58%)- Will Juventus FC win on 2026-11-01?No $2.3K · now 57¢ · in at 57¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Al Ahli Saudi FC win on 2026-11-02?Yes $2.1K · now 47¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-11-01?No $2.0K · now 51¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Elche CF win on 2026-11-01?Yes $1.6K · now 41¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (88% of 18)
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)Hamburger SV $1.3K · now 57¢ · in at 57¢against the consensus (Eintracht Frankfurt)
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Angers SCO: O/U 2.5Over $1.2K · now 56¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (86% of 21)
- Athletic Club vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5Over $1.0K · now 54¢ · in at 54¢against the consensus (Under)
- Elche CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5Under $1.0K · now 51¢ · in at 51¢against the consensus (Over)
Specialties
3,932 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 54¢- Tennis
+62 pts
side won 100% of 434 · avg entry 38¢
ROI +64%
- MLB
+49 pts
side won 100% of 912 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +49%
- NBA
+48 pts
side won 100% of 294 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +47%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 99% of 175)
- 30–50¢: 38%(won 100% of 1482)
- 50–70¢: 40%(won 100% of 1580)
- 70¢ and up: 18%(won 100% of 695)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.