Consensus PnL $57K · win rate 90% (982–109, n=1091) · was PM monthly #496 · holds 30 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$57.2K
Record
982W / 109L
Win Rate
90.0%
of 1091 settled
Batting Avg
37.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#235
Source
PM monthly #496
Trades
42,111
Markets
7,108
Volume
$46.7M
Top consensus positions
30 in listed consensus markets · 16 of 30 on the consensus side (53%)- Spread: Bengals (-10.5)Titans $8.3K · now 44¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (63% of 9)
- Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Dolphins $8.0K · now 47¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Falcons vs. BuccaneersFalcons $3.3K · now 45¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (57% of 14)
- Spread: Commanders (-5.5)Eagles $2.3K · now 47¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (77% of 13)
- Spread: Steelers (-3.5)Browns $2.0K · now 51¢ · in at 51¢against the consensus (Steelers)
- Eagles vs. CommandersCommanders $1.9K · now 71¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
- Chiefs vs. BroncosChiefs $1.6K · now 52¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (80% of 11)
- Spread: Lions (-2.5)Vikings $1.5K · now 42¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
Specialties
965 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 54¢- MLB
+48 pts
side won 100% of 371 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +48%
- NFL
+49 pts
side won 100% of 127 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +48%
- NBA
+46 pts
side won 98% of 226 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +41%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 100% of 17)
- 30–50¢: 37%(won 99% of 353)
- 50–70¢: 52%(won 100% of 497)
- 70¢ and up: 10%(won 100% of 98)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.