Consensus PnL $10K · win rate 52% (383–351, n=734) · was PM monthly #938 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$10.3K
Record
383W / 351L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 734 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1627
Source
PM monthly #938
Trades
121
Markets
760
Volume
$362.5K
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 8 on the consensus side (63%)- Clippers vs. WarriorsClippers $1.5K · now 46¢ · in at 37¢with the consensus (47% of 22)
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics $763 · now 56¢ · in at 55¢against the consensus (Magic)
- Will Invictus Gaming win Worlds 2026?Yes $718 · now 6¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $628 · now 7¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $517 · now 8¢ · in at 6¢with the consensus (100% of 9)
- Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?Yes $225 · now 8¢ · in at 6¢with the consensus (88% of 17)
- Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $171 · now 5¢ · in at 5¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will the Philadelphia 76ers be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion?Yes $15 · now 24¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
428 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 56¢- Soccer
+46 pts
side won 98% of 62 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +45%
- Esports
+31 pts
side won 89% of 197 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +29%
- NBA
+29 pts
side won 83% of 150 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +30%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 52% of 31)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 78% of 79)
- 50–70¢: 58%(won 93% of 250)
- 70¢ and up: 16%(won 100% of 68)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.