Spread: Bucks (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (50%) · Knicks at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Knicks
6
Knicks 50%
$1.2K
-$12.35
90.1¢ → 98.8¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidKnicks at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Knicksavg 90¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$8.24 | 50% 1504-1508 (3012) |
 RN1 | Knicksavg 90.7¢ | $137.41 | $149.62 | +$12.21 | 58% 3802-2784 (6586) |
65 6512395314597884<$100 | Knicksavg 89¢ | $43.06 | $27.48 | -$15.58 | 51% 3172-3072 (6244) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Bucksavg 9¢ | $7.15 | $0.71 | -$6.43 | 56% 488-383 (871) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 9.6¢ | $6.88 | $0.65 | -$6.23 | 59% 3119-2207 (5326) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 10¢ | $5 | $0.45 | -$4.55 | 49% 444-470 (914) |
Invested
$1,007.18
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$8.24
Record
50%
1504-1508 (3012)
RN1Invested
$137.41
Value
$149.62
PnL
+$12.21
Record
58%
3802-2784 (6586)
Invested
$43.06
Value
$27.48
PnL
-$15.58
Record
51%
3172-3072 (6244)
Invested
$7.15
Value
$0.71
PnL
-$6.43
Record
56%
488-383 (871)
Invested
$6.88
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$6.23
Record
59%
3119-2207 (5326)
Invested
$5
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$4.55
Record
49%
444-470 (914)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.