Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Knicks (62%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Knicks (-12.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (100%) · Bucks at 39¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Bucks
6
Bucks 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
-$32.98
39¢ → 38.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidBucks at 39%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Bucksavg 39¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | -$24.26 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Bucksavg 39¢ | $191.49 | $184.13 | -$7.37 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Knicksavg 62¢ | $166.15 | $109.63 | -$2.56 | 48% 939-1010 (1949) |
| └ Knicks leg | Knicksavg 62¢ | $58.9 | $58.43 | -$0.48 | |
| └ Bucks leg | Bucksavg 39¢ | $51.87 | $51.21 | -$2.09 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 38.5¢ | $87.16 | $84.83 | -$2.33 | 47% 149-168 (317) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 38¢ | $33.76 | $34.64 | +$0.89 | 26% 234-663 (897) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 38¢ | $17.62 | $18.08 | +$0.46 | 26% 234-653 (887) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 39¢ | $9.75 | $9.38 | -$0.38 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
Invested
$2,504.47
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$24.26
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$191.49
Value
$184.13
PnL
-$7.37
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
Invested
$166.15
Value
$109.63
PnL
-$2.56
Record
48%
939-1010 (1949)
Both legs:
Invested
$87.16
Value
$84.83
PnL
-$2.33
Record
47%
149-168 (317)
Invested
$33.76
Value
$34.64
PnL
+$0.89
Record
26%
234-663 (897)
Invested
$17.62
Value
$18.08
PnL
+$0.46
Record
26%
234-653 (887)
Invested
$9.75
Value
$9.38
PnL
-$0.38
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.