Spread: Thunder (-15.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (67%) · Trail Blazers at 91¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 11

Thunder9¢Trail Blazers91¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$45.02

Smart Money Entry

91.9¢ → 91¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder9%

Trail Blazers91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,927

Combined PnL+$43.17

Thunder2 traders

Total Value$60.11

Total Shares602

Combined PnL+$1.85

Trail Blazers — 67%Thunder — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 92.4¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$47.87	55% 541-436 (977)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 89.4¢	$825.86	$821.89	+$25.95	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 89.4¢	$627.9	$642.29	+$15.84
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 8¢	$169.49	$179.6	+$10.11
RN1	Trail Blazersavg 90.5¢	$579.69	$585.8	+$6.11	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
65 6512395314597884	Trail Blazersavg 91.6¢	$460.02	$450.51	-$9.51	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Thunderavg 10.8¢	$43.26	$38.86	-$4.4	58% 3133-2226 (5359)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Thunderavg 6¢	$15	$21.25	+$6.25	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
PA Pan9X<$100	Trail Blazersavg 91¢	$16.52	$15.21	-$1.31	49% 498-518 (1016)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,697

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$47.87

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$825.86

Value

$821.89

PnL

+$25.95

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$627.989.4¢+$15.84

Thunder$169.498¢+$10.11

RN1

Trail Blazers

Invested

$579.69

Value

$585.8

PnL

+$6.11

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

6512395314597884

Trail Blazers

Invested

$460.02

Value

$450.51

PnL

-$9.51

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$43.26

Value

$38.86

PnL

-$4.4

Record

58%

3133-2226 (5359)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$15

Value

$21.25

PnL

+$6.25

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

Pan9X<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$16.52

Value

$15.21

PnL

-$1.31

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.