Spread: Thunder (-19.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (57%) · Trail Blazers at 96¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Thunder4¢Trail Blazers96¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 57%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$35.35

Smart Money Entry

95¢ → 96¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Thunder4%

Trail Blazers96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,152

Combined PnL+$33.15

Thunder3 traders

Total Value$45.92

Total Shares1,237

Combined PnL+$2.2

Trail Blazers — 57%Thunder — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 96.4¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$6.63	55% 541-436 (977)
38 38791873984189	Trail Blazersavg 91¢	$450.53	$472.82	+$22.29	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
PA Pan9X<$100	Trail Blazersavg 93.5¢	$90.72	$51.25	+$3.61	49% 498-518 (1016)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Thunderavg 3¢	$29.51	$32.07	+$2.56	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Trail Blazersavg 91¢	$19.06	$19.69	+$0.63	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
RN1CTR<$100	Thunderavg 6.2¢	$10.21	$9.9	-$0.31	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Thunderavg 4¢	$4	$3.95	-$0.05	62% 2389-1477 (3866)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,533.64

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$6.63

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

38791873984189

Trail Blazers

Invested

$450.53

Value

$472.82

PnL

+$22.29

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

Pan9X<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$90.72

Value

$51.25

PnL

+$3.61

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$29.51

Value

$32.07

PnL

+$2.56

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

6512395314597884<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$19.06

Value

$19.69

PnL

+$0.63

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

RN1CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$10.21

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$0.31

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

62%

2389-1477 (3866)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.