Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Trail Blazers, while the market favors Thunder (54%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Thunder (-1.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (83%) · Trail Blazers at 47¢ · $540 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Trail Blazers
6
Trail Blazers 83%
$539.88
-$0.12
46.4¢ → 46.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidTrail Blazers at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Trail Blazersavg 46¢ | $241.24 | $241 | -$0.24 | 48% 207-227 (434) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Trail Blazersavg 46.9¢ | $192.33 | $190.87 | -$1.47 | 50% 1378-1394 (2772) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Thunderavg 51.4¢ | $45.22 | $47.06 | +$1.83 | 57% 3070-2308 (5378) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 46¢ | $44.86 | $44.86 | +$0 | 48% 709-765 (1474) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 47¢ | $11.75 | $11.5 | -$0.25 | 48% 405-439 (844) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 46¢ | $4.6 | $4.6 | +$0 | 55% 94-78 (172) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$241.24
Value
$241
PnL
-$0.24
Record
48%
207-227 (434)
Invested
$192.33
Value
$190.87
PnL
-$1.47
Record
50%
1378-1394 (2772)
Invested
$45.22
Value
$47.06
PnL
+$1.83
Record
57%
3070-2308 (5378)
Invested
$44.86
Value
$44.86
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
709-765 (1474)
Invested
$11.75
Value
$11.5
PnL
-$0.25
Record
48%
405-439 (844)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$4.6
Value
$4.6
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
94-78 (172)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.