Spread: Thunder (-9.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (71%) · Trail Blazers at 75¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Trail Blazers
7
Trail Blazers 71%
$3.4K
$129.54
69¢ → 74.5¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidTrail Blazers at 75%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forecastication4 | Trail Blazersavg 69¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$83.4 | 11% 24-189 (213) |
FL Flaznorp | Trail Blazersavg 68.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$68.63 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
38 38791873984189 | Trail Blazersavg 69.7¢ | $537.37 | $350.96 | +$22.66 | 48% 939-1010 (1949) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Thunderavg 30.1¢ | $300.98 | $260 | -$40.98 | 49% 79-83 (162) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 70.4¢ | $70.51 | $70.77 | +$0.26 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
PU purplegattoCTR<$100 | Thunderavg 28.4¢ | $43.18 | $38.76 | -$4.42 | 69% 2573-1166 (3739) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 73¢ | $2.92 | $2.92 | +$0 | 52% 128-119 (247) |
Invested
$1,438.65
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$83.4
Record
11%
24-189 (213)
Invested
$1,132.94
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$68.63
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
Invested
$537.37
Value
$350.96
PnL
+$22.66
Record
48%
939-1010 (1949)
Invested
$300.98
Value
$260
PnL
-$40.98
Record
49%
79-83 (162)
Invested
$70.51
Value
$70.77
PnL
+$0.26
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
Invested
$43.18
Value
$38.76
PnL
-$4.42
Record
69%
2573-1166 (3739)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$2.92
Value
$2.92
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
128-119 (247)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.