Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (22%) · Thunder at 91¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 11

Trail Blazers10¢Thunder90¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 22%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$110.13

Smart Money Entry

84.4¢ → 90.5¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers10%

Thunder91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder2 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,778

Combined PnL+$151.19

Trail Blazers7 traders

Total Value$407.77

Total Shares4,047

Combined PnL-$261.33

Thunder — 22%Trail Blazers — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Thunderavg 84¢	$2.9K	$3.1K	+$152.73	55% 541-436 (977)
65 6512395314597884	Thunderavg 88.3¢	$297.28	$295.74	-$1.53	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Trail Blazersavg 13¢	$308.67	$225.53	-$83.14	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Trail Blazersavg 26¢	$260	$110	-$150	53% 228-199 (427)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 17¢	$51.17	$31.1	-$15.48	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 12¢	$24	$19	-$5	62% 2389-1477 (3866)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 16.1¢	$16.95	$12.08	-$4.87	49% 498-518 (1016)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 12¢	$7.2	$5.7	-$1.5	64% 188-108 (296)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 15¢	$5.7	$4.37	-$1.33	58% 3133-2226 (5359)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Thunder

Invested

$2,927.3

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$152.73

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

6512395314597884

Thunder

Invested

$297.28

Value

$295.74

PnL

-$1.53

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

FlaznorpCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$308.67

Value

$225.53

PnL

-$83.14

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$260

Value

$110

PnL

-$150

Record

53%

228-199 (427)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$51.17

Value

$31.1

PnL

-$15.48

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$24

Value

$19

PnL

-$5

Record

62%

2389-1477 (3866)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$16.95

Value

$12.08

PnL

-$4.87

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$7.2

Value

$5.7

PnL

-$1.5

Record

64%

188-108 (296)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$5.7

Value

$4.37

PnL

-$1.33

Record

58%

3133-2226 (5359)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.