Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Thunder, while the market favors Trail Blazers (51%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Thunder (-1.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (57%) · Thunder at 50¢ · $268 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Thunder
7
Thunder 57%
$267.92
$5.72
48¢ → 49.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidThunder at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Thunderavg 48¢ | $138.72 | $138.72 | +$0 | 70% 1671-716 (2387) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Thunderavg 48¢ | $32.95 | $35.01 | +$2.06 | 30% 376-862 (1238) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 46.5¢ | $32.65 | $34.44 | +$1.79 | 48% 1299-1404 (2703) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Thunderavg 48¢ | $18.21 | $19.35 | +$1.14 | 50% 3288-3242 (6530) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 47¢ | $17.38 | $18.12 | +$0.74 | 48% 658-706 (1364) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Thunderavg 48¢ | $12.72 | $12.72 | +$0 | 30% 372-863 (1235) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 49¢ | $9.56 | $9.56 | +$0 | 51% 1822-1783 (3605) |
Invested
$138.72
Value
$138.72
PnL
+$0
Record
70%
1671-716 (2387)
Invested
$32.95
Value
$35.01
PnL
+$2.06
Record
30%
376-862 (1238)
Invested
$32.65
Value
$34.44
PnL
+$1.79
Record
48%
1299-1404 (2703)
Invested
$18.21
Value
$19.35
PnL
+$1.14
Record
50%
3288-3242 (6530)
Invested
$17.38
Value
$18.12
PnL
+$0.74
Record
48%
658-706 (1364)
Invested
$12.72
Value
$12.72
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
372-863 (1235)
Invested
$9.56
Value
$9.56
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1822-1783 (3605)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.