Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 196.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 97¢ · $53 held · ends Nov 12

Over97¢Under3¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$53.33

Combined PnL

-$6.04

Research grade

AvoidOver at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over97%

Under3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$39.64

Total Shares25

Combined PnL-$1.35

Under3 traders

Total Value$13.68

Total Shares539

Combined PnL-$4.69

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 96.8¢	$30.16	$25.47	-$1.28	48% 1286-1384 (2670)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 96.7¢	$10.96	$9.04	-$0.03	48% 654-705 (1359)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 3.2¢	$5.66	$6.05	+$0.39	51% 1818-1779 (3597)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$10.88	$5.71	-$5.17	18% 48-217 (265)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 96.8¢	$5.17	$5.13	-$0.04	54% 553-471 (1024)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Underavg 2¢	$1.83	$1.92	+$0.09	12% 21-154 (175)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$30.16

Value

$25.47

PnL

-$1.28

Record

48%

1286-1384 (2670)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$10.96

Value

$9.04

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

654-705 (1359)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.66

Value

$6.05

PnL

+$0.39

Record

51%

1818-1779 (3597)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.88

Value

$5.71

PnL

-$5.17

Record

18%

48-217 (265)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$5.17

Value

$5.13

PnL

-$0.04

Record

54%

553-471 (1024)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.83

Value

$1.92

PnL

+$0.09

Record

12%

21-154 (175)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.