Consensus PnL $22K · win rate 13% (1173–7663, n=8836) · PM monthly #776 · holds 259 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$22.4K
Record
1173W / 7663L
Win Rate
13.0%
of 8836 settled
Batting Avg
78.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2620
Source
PM monthly #776
Record (90 d)
511/9867 · 5%
Trades
9,354
Markets
11,722
Volume
$2.7M
Top consensus positions
259 in listed consensus markets · 120 of 259 on the consensus side (46%)- Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?No $1.1K · now 95¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will Oura not IPO before January 2027?Yes $915 · now 95¢ · in at 4¢against the consensus (No)
- Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?No $865 · now 84¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?No $773 · now 94¢ · in at 24¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?No $770 · now 93¢ · in at 29¢with the consensus (73% of 11)
- Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?No $677 · now 89¢ · in at 28¢with the consensus (62% of 13)
- Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?No $573 · now 81¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $368 · now 44¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (65% of 69)
Specialties
4,406 settled consensus markets · held side won 5% at an average entry of 6¢Weakest: Economy — held side won 2% of 144 at an average 6¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 95%(won 2% of 4189)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 28% of 65)
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 50% of 42)
- 70¢ and up: 2%(won 79% of 110)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.