Spread: Pistons (-22.5)

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (17%) · Wizards at 85¢ · $662 held · ends Nov 10

Pistons16¢Wizards84¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

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Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 17%

Total Value

$662.24

Combined PnL

-$1

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pistons16%

Wizards85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards1 trader

Total Value$575.58

Total Shares681

Combined PnL-$0.81

Pistons5 traders

Total Value$86.66

Total Shares563

Combined PnL-$0.19

Wizards — 17%Pistons — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Wizardsavg 84.6¢	$576.39	$575.58	-$0.81	52% 242-227 (469)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 15¢	$43.72	$45.17	+$1.46	49% 388-405 (793)
RN1CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 15¢	$19.4	$19.4	-$0	54% 235-203 (438)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 17.9¢	$10.98	$9.51	-$1.47	26% 89-254 (343)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 16¢	$9	$8.7	-$0.3	48% 174-190 (364)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 15¢	$3.75	$3.88	+$0.13	47% 82-92 (174)

Flaznorp

Wizards

Invested

$576.39

Value

$575.58

PnL

-$0.81

Record

52%

242-227 (469)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$43.72

Value

$45.17

PnL

+$1.46

Record

49%

388-405 (793)

RN1CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$19.4

Value

$19.4

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

235-203 (438)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$10.98

Value

$9.51

PnL

-$1.47

Record

26%

89-254 (343)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$0.3

Record

48%

174-190 (364)

Anon455CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.88

PnL

+$0.13

Record

47%

82-92 (174)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.