Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Wizards, while the market favors Pacers (60%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Wizards (-1.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (71%) · Wizards at 40¢ · $802 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Wizards
7
Wizards 71%
1 arb excluded
$801.75
$0.67
40.3¢ → 40¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidWizards at 40%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Pacersavg 59¢ | $301.63 | $306.76 | +$5.13 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 59¢ | $215.94 | $217.77 | +$1.83 | |
| └ Wizards leg | Wizardsavg 39¢ | $85.69 | $88.99 | +$3.3 | |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Wizardsavg 41¢ | $174.2 | $163.57 | -$10.62 | 31% 405-886 (1291) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Pacersavg 59¢ | $131.29 | $131.29 | -$0 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
 RN1CTR | Wizardsavg 40¢ | $102.3 | $112.36 | +$10.06 | 57% 4056-3070 (7126) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Pacersavg 59¢ | $48.39 | $48.39 | -$0 | 39% 382-610 (992) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 38¢ | $27.36 | $27.72 | +$0.36 | 48% 1420-1557 (2977) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 38¢ | $20.45 | $8.85 | +$0.8 | 49% 684-724 (1408) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 37¢ | $2.73 | $2.8 | +$0.07 | 50% 3299-3255 (6554) |
Invested
$301.63
Value
$306.76
PnL
+$5.13
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Both legs:
Invested
$174.2
Value
$163.57
PnL
-$10.62
Record
31%
405-886 (1291)
Invested
$131.29
Value
$131.29
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
RN1CTRInvested
$102.3
Value
$112.36
PnL
+$10.06
Record
57%
4056-3070 (7126)
Invested
$48.39
Value
$48.39
PnL
-$0
Record
39%
382-610 (992)
Invested
$27.36
Value
$27.72
PnL
+$0.36
Record
48%
1420-1557 (2977)
Invested
$20.45
Value
$8.85
PnL
+$0.8
Record
49%
684-724 (1408)
Invested
$2.73
Value
$2.8
PnL
+$0.07
Record
50%
3299-3255 (6554)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.