Spread: Pacers (-2.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (67%) · Pacers at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
6
Pacers 67%
$2.2K
$6.45
52¢ → 51.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Pacersavg 52¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$0 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Wizardsavg 46¢ | $142.66 | $148.86 | +$6.2 | 31% 375-842 (1217) |
38 38791873984189 | Pacersavg 52¢ | $145.6 | $145.6 | +$0 | 48% 1299-1404 (2703) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Pacersavg 52¢ | $36.92 | $36.92 | +$0 | 48% 658-706 (1364) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 44.5¢ | $4.45 | $4.8 | +$0.35 | 30% 372-863 (1235) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Pacersavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $2.6 | -$0.1 | 32% 281-611 (892) |
Invested
$1,829
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$142.66
Value
$148.86
PnL
+$6.2
Record
31%
375-842 (1217)
Invested
$145.6
Value
$145.6
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
1299-1404 (2703)
Invested
$36.92
Value
$36.92
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
658-706 (1364)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$0.35
Record
30%
372-863 (1235)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.6
PnL
-$0.1
Record
32%
281-611 (892)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.