Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 62¢ · $917 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 57%
$916.91
-$0.49
61.4¢ → 61.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 62%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 61¢ | $263.01 | $265.17 | +$2.16 | 51% 1833-1786 (3619) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 61.8¢ | $431.68 | $236.61 | -$5.36 | 48% 1322-1438 (2760) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Overavg 39¢ | $180.09 | $177.78 | -$2.31 | 30% 373-863 (1236) |
LI LimousinCTR | Overavg 37¢ | $96.13 | $101.32 | +$5.2 | 30% 373-867 (1240) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $74.1 | $75.08 | +$0.98 | 31% 378-844 (1222) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 62.1¢ | $59.46 | $44.99 | -$1.05 | 48% 662-709 (1371) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 61.6¢ | $16.06 | $15.96 | -$0.1 | 54% 565-474 (1039) |
Invested
$263.01
Value
$265.17
PnL
+$2.16
Record
51%
1833-1786 (3619)
Invested
$431.68
Value
$236.61
PnL
-$5.36
Record
48%
1322-1438 (2760)
Invested
$180.09
Value
$177.78
PnL
-$2.31
Record
30%
373-863 (1236)
Invested
$96.13
Value
$101.32
PnL
+$5.2
Record
30%
373-867 (1240)
Invested
$74.1
Value
$75.08
PnL
+$0.98
Record
31%
378-844 (1222)
Invested
$59.46
Value
$44.99
PnL
-$1.05
Record
48%
662-709 (1371)
Invested
$16.06
Value
$15.96
PnL
-$0.1
Record
54%
565-474 (1039)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.