Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 69¢ · $722 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
$722.17
-$3.9
70.5¢ → 69¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 69%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 70.7¢ | $364.97 | $356.43 | -$8.55 | 48% 1375-1500 (2875) |
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | Underavg 70¢ | $144.9 | $142.83 | -$2.07 | 51% 3716-3548 (7264) |
VE VenusianCTR | Overavg 29¢ | $121.11 | $129.46 | +$8.35 | 31% 390-871 (1261) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 70.2¢ | $90.58 | $89.01 | -$1.57 | 49% 673-714 (1387) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $4.51 | $4.44 | -$0.06 | 38% 351-584 (935) |
Invested
$364.97
Value
$356.43
PnL
-$8.55
Record
48%
1375-1500 (2875)
Invested
$144.9
Value
$142.83
PnL
-$2.07
Record
51%
3716-3548 (7264)
Invested
$121.11
Value
$129.46
PnL
+$8.35
Record
31%
390-871 (1261)
Invested
$90.58
Value
$89.01
PnL
-$1.57
Record
49%
673-714 (1387)
Invested
$4.51
Value
$4.44
PnL
-$0.06
Record
38%
351-584 (935)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.