Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Bears (75%) · Bears at 54¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Bears
4
Bears 75%
$8.8K
-$18.36
54¢ → 54¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralBears at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE Herdonia | Bearsavg 54¢ | $6.8K | $6.8K | -$0 | 54% 3403-2950 (6353) |
MO mooseborzoii | Bearsavg 54¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$18.39 | 50% 1188-1183 (2371) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Seahawksavg 46¢ | $23.92 | $23.92 | -$0.26 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Bearsavg 53¢ | $10.07 | $10.26 | +$0.29 | 54% 3099-2669 (5768) |
Invested
$6,794.76
Value
$6.8K
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
3403-2950 (6353)
Invested
$1,986.47
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$18.39
Record
50%
1188-1183 (2371)
Invested
$23.92
Value
$23.92
PnL
-$0.26
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
Invested
$10.07
Value
$10.26
PnL
+$0.29
Record
54%
3099-2669 (5768)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.