Consensus PnL -$479K · win rate 50% (902–900, n=1802) · was PM monthly #43 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-479.2K
Record
902W / 900L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 1802 settled
Batting Avg
75.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1738
Source
PM monthly #43
Trades
50
Markets
2,409
Volume
$70.4M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 6 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?No $15K · now 54¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (76% of 32)
- Spread: Commanders (-5.5)Commanders $2.6K · now 54¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (Eagles)
- Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Dolphins $2.3K · now 47¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Spread: Bengals (-10.5)Titans $2.2K · now 44¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (63% of 9)
- Browns vs. SteelersBrowns $1.8K · now 36¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (Steelers)
- Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)Cardinals $1.6K · now 52¢ · in at 54¢against the consensus (Cowboys)
Specialties
825 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 52¢- College Football
+49 pts
side won 100% of 249 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +50%
- NFL
+50 pts
side won 100% of 89 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +50%
- Soccer
+47 pts
side won 100% of 264 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +51%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 100% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 42%(won 100% of 347)
- 50–70¢: 55%(won 100% of 451)
- 70¢ and up: 3%(won 100% of 23)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.