Consensus PnL $1.1K · win rate 52% (2504–2326, n=4830) · was PM monthly #945 · holds 15 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.1K
Record
2504W / 2326L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 4830 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1608
Source
PM monthly #945
Trades
306
Markets
5,794
Volume
$812.5K
Top consensus positions
15 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 15 on the consensus side (47%)- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe PlayoffsTeam Spirit $369 · now 80¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Team Yandex)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Yes $270 · now 27¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (No)
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Over $44 · now 51¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (68% of 24)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Villanova WildcatsVillanova Wildcats $23 · now 82¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (56% of 10)
- Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under $16 · now 46¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Over)
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-11-01?Yes $14 · now 64¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Spread: Commanders (-5.5)Commanders $14 · now 54¢ · in at 51¢against the consensus (Eagles)
- Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Dolphins $12 · now 47¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
Specialties
1,516 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 53¢- College Football
+49 pts
side won 100% of 426 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +45%
- MLB
+47 pts
side won 100% of 524 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +47%
- Other Sports
+46 pts
side won 100% of 114 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +43%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 100% of 27)
- 30–50¢: 37%(won 100% of 562)
- 50–70¢: 52%(won 100% of 781)
- 70¢ and up: 10%(won 100% of 146)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.