Blue Jackets vs. Sabres

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Sabres (71%) · Sabres at 62¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7

Blue Jackets39¢Sabres61¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sabres

Consensus Traders

Sabres 71%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$34.35

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 61.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSabres at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sabres

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Blue Jackets39%

Sabres62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sabres5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,757

Combined PnL+$35.62

Blue Jackets2 traders

Total Value$112.09

Total Shares284

Combined PnL-$1.27

Sabres — 71%Blue Jackets — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Sabres. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBlue Jackets 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrSabres 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Sabres 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
G5 g56gz56guzn547nu76	Sabresavg 59¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$34.17	55% 235-193 (428)
38 38791873984189	Sabresavg 60¢	$120	$120	+$1	48% 61607-66479 (128086)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Blue Jacketsavg 41.1¢	$100.28	$96.29	-$1.07	50% 21308-21583 (42891)
PA Pan9X<$100	Sabresavg 60¢	$65.34	$65.34	+$0	54% 9944-8355 (18299)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Sabresavg 59¢	$59	$60	+$1.5	53% 12489-11221 (23710)
RL RLWG<$100	Sabresavg 62¢	$43.39	$41.99	-$1.05	50% 8318-8377 (16695)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Blue Jacketsavg 41.2¢	$16.48	$15.8	-$0.2	46% 8659-10309 (18968)

g56gz56guzn547nu76

Sabres

Invested

$1,343.91

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$34.17

Record

55%

235-193 (428)

38791873984189

Sabres

Invested

$120

Value

$120

PnL

+$1

Record

48%

61607-66479 (128086)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Blue Jackets

Invested

$100.28

Value

$96.29

PnL

-$1.07

Record

50%

21308-21583 (42891)

Pan9X<$100

Sabres

Invested

$65.34

Value

$65.34

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

9944-8355 (18299)

BoomLaLa<$100

Sabres

Invested

$59

Value

$60

PnL

+$1.5

Record

53%

12489-11221 (23710)

RLWG<$100

Sabres

Invested

$43.39

Value

$41.99

PnL

-$1.05

Record

50%

8318-8377 (16695)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Blue Jackets

Invested

$16.48

Value

$15.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

46%

8659-10309 (18968)

Research grade

NeutralSabres at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sabres

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Sabres. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBlue Jackets 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrSabres 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Sabres 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sabres wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.