Consensus PnL $17K · win rate 49% (5905–6257, n=12162) · PM monthly #645 · holds 45 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$16.6K
Record
5905W / 6257L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 12162 settled
Batting Avg
57.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1830
Source
PM monthly #645
Trades
504
Markets
16,224
Volume
$861.2K
Top consensus positions
45 in listed consensus markets · 20 of 45 on the consensus side (44%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ETUp $3.5K · now 65¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (63% of 35)
- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?No $30 · now 75¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (40% of 25)
- Nets vs. PacersPacers $25 · now 62¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (50% of 17)
- Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?No $24 · now 75¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (65% of 24)
- Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?No $23 · now 91¢ · in at 90¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?No $22 · now 89¢ · in at 87¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $22 · now 66¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (68% of 131)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?No $20 · now 68¢ · in at 64¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
759 settled consensus markets · held side won 94% at an average entry of 52¢- Crypto
+41 pts
side won 94% of 722 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +46%
- Esports
+43 pts
side won 100% of 15 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +42%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 50% of 46)
- 30–50¢: 25%(won 92% of 190)
- 50–70¢: 62%(won 98% of 473)
- 70¢ and up: 7%(won 100% of 50)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.