Spread: Capitals (-2.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Senators (38%) · Senators at 70¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Capitals31¢Senators69¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Senators

Consensus Traders

Senators 38%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$29.96

Smart Money Entry

70.7¢ → 69.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralSenators at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Senators

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Capitals31%

Senators70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Senators3 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares5,141

Combined PnL-$91.99

Capitals5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares5,388

Combined PnL+$121.95

Senators — 38%Capitals — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Senators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSenators 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Capitals 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Senatorsavg 67¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$97.01	14% 48-304 (352)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Capitalsavg 33¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$58.19	47% 500-558 (1058)
0xheavy888	Senatorsavg 82¢	$1.0K	$823.17	-$184.29	55% 119-96 (215)
nigiri99CTR	Capitalsavg 18¢	$226.8	$403.2	+$176.4	52% 128-120 (248)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Capitalsavg 30.2¢	$35.06	$37.17	+$2.11	48% 947-1017 (1964)
GH ghorrock<$100	Senatorsavg 82¢	$25.74	$21.03	-$4.71	54% 383-321 (704)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Capitalsavg 32.2¢	$12.88	$12.8	-$0.08	49% 443-470 (913)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Capitalsavg 18¢	$2.19	$3.89	+$1.7	50% 1503-1507 (3010)

ferrariChampions2026

Senators

Invested

$2,600

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$97.01

Record

14%

48-304 (352)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Capitals

Invested

$1,305.35

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$58.19

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

0xheavy888

Senators

Invested

$1,007.46

Value

$823.17

PnL

-$184.29

Record

55%

119-96 (215)

nigiri99CTR

Capitals

Invested

$226.8

Value

$403.2

PnL

+$176.4

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Capitals

Invested

$35.06

Value

$37.17

PnL

+$2.11

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

ghorrock<$100

Senators

Invested

$25.74

Value

$21.03

PnL

-$4.71

Record

54%

383-321 (704)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Capitals

Invested

$12.88

Value

$12.8

PnL

-$0.08

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Capitals

Invested

$2.19

Value

$3.89

PnL

+$1.7

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

Research grade

NeutralSenators at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Senators

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Senators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSenators 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Capitals 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Senators wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.