Consensus PnL -$67K · win rate 48% (217–237, n=454) · PM monthly #15 · holds 15 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-67.0K
Record
217W / 237L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 454 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2116
Source
PM monthly #15
Record (90 d)
197/199 · 99%
Trades
123
Markets
590
Volume
$12.0M
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Top consensus positions
15 in listed consensus markets · 12 of 15 on the consensus side (80%)- Spread: Ohio (-14.5)Akron $27K · now 56¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (44% of 18)
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Villarreal CF $23K · now 67¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (61% of 24)
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-11-03?No $9.0K · now 43¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (67% of 43)
- Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)Aston Villa FC $6.8K · now 43¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (58% of 26)
- Villarreal CF vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5Under $6.3K · now 49¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (58% of 21)
- Buffalo vs. Miami (OH): O/U 43.5Over $6.0K · now 55¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
- Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5)Aston Villa FC $4.8K · now 64¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Portsmouth FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 2.5Under $2.8K · now 56¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (50% of 10)
Specialties
178 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 52¢- Soccer
+49 pts
side won 100% of 53 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +51%
- NBA
+48 pts
side won 100% of 57 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +49%
- College Football
+49 pts
side won 100% of 44 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +50%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 47%(won 100% of 83)
- 50–70¢: 46%(won 100% of 82)
- 70¢ and up: 7%(won 100% of 13)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.