Capitals vs. Senators: O/U 4.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 81¢ · $408 held · ended Nov 11

Over81¢Under19¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

Total Value

$407.69

Combined PnL

$66

Research grade

NeutralOver at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over81%

Under19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$318.6

Total Shares360

Combined PnL+$66.6

Under4 traders

Total Value$89.06

Total Shares369

Combined PnL-$0.6

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 70¢	$252	$318.6	+$66.6	30% 134-317 (451)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 27.7¢	$64.73	$44.45	-$20.27	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$21.95	$40.24	+$18.29	48% 949-1019 (1968)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 19.1¢	$1.95	$3.37	+$1.42	54% 383-322 (705)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$1.03	$1	-$0.03	47% 500-558 (1058)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$252

Value

$318.6

PnL

+$66.6

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$64.73

Value

$44.45

PnL

-$20.27

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.95

Value

$40.24

PnL

+$18.29

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.95

Value

$3.37

PnL

+$1.42

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.03

Value

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.