Spread: Vålerenga Fotball (-3.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kristiansund BK (20%) · Kristiansund BK at 95¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 9
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Neutral
Kristiansund BK
5
Kristiansund BK 20%
$2.7K
$11.33
Research grade
NeutralKristiansund BK at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Kristiansund BK. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Kristiansund BKavg 96.1¢ | $2.7K | $2.6K | +$3.45 | 50% 33896-34147 (68043) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Vålerenga Fotballavg 4¢ | $46.07 | $51.45 | +$5.38 | 52% 49669-46633 (96302) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Vålerenga Fotballavg 4¢ | $26.26 | $25.37 | -$0.89 | 45% 2751-3326 (6077) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Vålerenga Fotballavg 3¢ | $13.42 | $15.81 | +$2.39 | 45% 2826-3461 (6287) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Vålerenga Fotballavg 4¢ | $335.25 | $14.42 | +$1.01 | 45% 2764-3372 (6136) |
Invested
$2,702.67
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$3.45
Record
50%
33896-34147 (68043)
Invested
$46.07
Value
$51.45
PnL
+$5.38
Record
52%
49669-46633 (96302)
Invested
$26.26
Value
$25.37
PnL
-$0.89
Record
45%
2751-3326 (6077)
Invested
$13.42
Value
$15.81
PnL
+$2.39
Record
45%
2826-3461 (6287)
Invested
$335.25
Value
$14.42
PnL
+$1.01
Record
45%
2764-3372 (6136)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.