Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (76%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Odds BK win on 2026-11-01?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 24¢ · $929 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 75%
$929.15
$224.85
38.3¢ → 24¢
-37% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR | Noavg 37¢ | $251.68 | $476.15 | +$224.47 | 55% 1781-1468 (3249) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 40¢ | $171.67 | $276.41 | -$5.92 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Noavg 39¢ | $81.12 | $145.59 | -$1.04 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 59.2¢ | $23.66 | $30.99 | +$7.34 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
Invested
$251.68
Value
$476.15
PnL
+$224.47
Record
55%
1781-1468 (3249)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$171.67
Value
$276.41
PnL
-$5.92
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
Invested
$81.12
Value
$145.59
PnL
-$1.04
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$23.66
Value
$30.99
PnL
+$7.34
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.