NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.5K
-$285.61
87.8¢ → 91.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
27 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cowcat | Noavg 88.5¢ | $808.66 | $781.41 | +$21.35 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f | Noavg 88¢ | $497.46 | $517.42 | +$19.94 | 69% 156-69 (225) |
QM QMG-CORECTR | Yesavg 23¢ | $451.44 | $169.26 | -$282.17 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
 Dr.mettCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $95 | $42.5 | -$52.5 | 86% 1417-234 (1651) |
 MEPP<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $26.93 | $34.71 | +$7.78 | 64% 633-352 (985) |
Invested
$808.66
Value
$781.41
PnL
+$21.35
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$497.46
Value
$517.42
PnL
+$19.94
Record
69%
156-69 (225)
Invested
$451.44
Value
$169.26
PnL
-$282.17
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
Dr.mettCTR<$100Invested
$95
Value
$42.5
PnL
-$52.5
Record
86%
1417-234 (1651)
MEPP<$100Invested
$26.93
Value
$34.71
PnL
+$7.78
Record
64%
633-352 (985)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.