Consensus PnL $74K · win rate 57% (1102–820, n=1922) · PM monthly #455 · holds 175 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$73.6K
Record
1102W / 820L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 1922 settled
Batting Avg
53.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1325
Source
PM monthly #455
Trades
21,439
Markets
3,832
Volume
$8.4M
Top consensus positions
175 in listed consensus markets · 108 of 175 on the consensus side (62%)- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No $18K · now 93¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (58% of 12)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $10K · now 77¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (79% of 56)
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No $8.4K · now 33¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $8.3K · now 40¢ · in at 11¢with the consensus (83% of 42)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $5.4K · now 28¢ · in at 35¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No $5.1K · now 52¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (58% of 33)
- Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?No $4.9K · now 42¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (45% of 42)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $4.7K · now 28¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,653 settled consensus markets · held side won 84% at an average entry of 70¢- Elections
+16 pts
side won 75% of 392 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +5%
- Entertainment
+14 pts
side won 89% of 248 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +12%
- Soccer
+15 pts
side won 80% of 186 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +15%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 26% of 274)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 75% of 118)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 91% of 169)
- 70¢ and up: 66%(won 99% of 1092)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.