Consensus PnL $130K · win rate 80% (1006–255, n=1261) · was PM monthly #826 · holds 77 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$130.1K
Record
1006W / 255L
Win Rate
80.0%
of 1261 settled
Batting Avg
71.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#432
Source
PM monthly #826 + pinned
Trades
64,614
Markets
2,071
Volume
$11.1M
Top consensus positions
77 in listed consensus markets · 74 of 77 on the consensus side (96%)- US recession by end of 2026?No $22K · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (96% of 27)
- Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?No $20K · now 94¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $16K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (91% of 47)
- Iran Nuke before 2027?No $16K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (88% of 26)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $16K · now 97¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (90% of 51)
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No $15K · now 94¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (78% of 37)
- Will the Republicans win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?No $15K · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (38% of 8)
- Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?Yes $9.7K · now 99¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (75% of 16)
Specialties
1,751 settled consensus markets · held side won 81% at an average entry of 79¢- Tennis
+23 pts
side won 87% of 15 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +15%
- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 76% of 395 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +1%
- Politics
+4 pts
side won 82% of 180 · avg entry 79¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 82% of 57 at an average 83¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 8% of 279)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 40% of 47)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 67% of 63)
- 70¢ and up: 78%(won 98% of 1362)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.