Consensus PnL $562K · win rate 65% (361–191, n=552) · PM monthly #995 · holds 82 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$562.1K
Record
361W / 191L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 552 settled
Batting Avg
57.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#930
Source
PM monthly #995 + pinned
Trades
59,981
Markets
1,157
Volume
$17.1M
Top consensus positions
82 in listed consensus markets · 66 of 82 on the consensus side (80%)- Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?No $88K · now 93¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (79% of 19)
- Iran Nuke before 2027?No $79K · now 96¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (88% of 26)
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes $41K · now 86¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (87% of 46)
- US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No $23K · now 97¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (88% of 26)
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No $19K · now 97¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (94% of 31)
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No $16K · now 93¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (87% of 15)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No $15K · now 74¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (55% of 32)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No $15K · now 58¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
777 settled consensus markets · held side won 66% at an average entry of 62¢- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 65% of 548 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +5%
- Politics
+4 pts
side won 67% of 55 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +6%
- Tech
+7 pts
side won 77% of 26 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 36% of 11 at an average 54¢ entry (−18 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 20%(won 14% of 153)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 34% of 82)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 66% of 145)
- 70¢ and up: 51%(won 93% of 397)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.