Consensus PnL $12K · win rate 88% (989–136, n=1125) · hand-picked wallet · holds 14 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$12.4K
Record
989W / 136L
Win Rate
88.0%
of 1125 settled
Batting Avg
70.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#267
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
12,781
Markets
1,837
Volume
$760.7K
Top consensus positions
14 in listed consensus markets · 12 of 14 on the consensus side (86%)- Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?No $742 · now 94¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?No $477 · now 85¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?No $217 · now 96¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (93% of 14)
- Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?No $161 · now 96¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?No $135 · now 90¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?No $128 · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (88% of 17)
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?No $114 · now 97¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?No $53 · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (44% of 18)
Specialties
1,241 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 86¢- Politics
+4 pts
side won 91% of 190 · avg entry 86¢
ROI +3%
- Economy
+5 pts
side won 85% of 71 · avg entry 79¢
ROI +4%
- Weather
+6 pts
side won 97% of 30 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 86% of 22 at an average 93¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 12% of 75)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 38% of 50)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 61% of 61)
- 70¢ and up: 85%(won 98% of 1055)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.