Will Omar Cooper Jr. have 299.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 96¢ · $779 held · ends Jan 27, 2027
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Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$778.6
$132.63
77.1¢ → 96.4¢
+25% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Robbb | Yesavg 77.4¢ | $545.04 | $684.01 | +$138.97 | 78% 2520-697 (3217) |
ND ndb1<$100 | Yesavg 75¢ | $66.92 | $86.69 | +$19.76 | 64% 1168-660 (1828) |
CR crckrCTR<$100 | Noavg 18.3¢ | $25.57 | $4.08 | -$21.49 | 27% 862-2377 (3239) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Noavg 6.4¢ | $8.55 | $3.82 | -$4.61 | 58% 947-692 (1639) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.