Consensus PnL $98K · win rate 83% (2411–480, n=2891) · was PM monthly #996 · holds 140 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$98.3K
Record
2411W / 480L
Win Rate
83.0%
of 2891 settled
Batting Avg
40.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#266
Source
PM monthly #996
Record (90 d)
607/669 · 91%
Trades
2,182
Markets
3,437
Volume
$1.5M
Loading this trader’s full history
Large accounts take up to ~20 s
Loading positions and trades…
Top consensus positions
140 in listed consensus markets · 113 of 140 on the consensus side (81%)- Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Yes $5.3K · now 88¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (61% of 40)
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No $4.2K · now 94¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (69% of 61)
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes $2.5K · now 93¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (79% of 72)
- Will Connor McDavid win the 2026-27 Hart Memorial Trophy?Yes $2.4K · now 75¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (38% of 8)
- Will Darian Mensah win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?No $2.4K · now 80¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (25% of 10)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $2.1K · now 26¢ · in at 6¢with the consensus (70% of 74)
- Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Yes $1.9K · now 90¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (63% of 27)
- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $1.6K · now 34¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (74% of 77)
Specialties
1,863 settled consensus markets · held side won 83% at an average entry of 78¢- Mentions
+11 pts
side won 94% of 68 · avg entry 83¢
ROI +7%
- Soccer
+6 pts
side won 84% of 247 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +10%
- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 80% of 545 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: College Football — held side won 44% of 36 at an average 67¢ entry (−23 pts against the price), ROI −19%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 10% of 139)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 34% of 116)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 68% of 220)
- 70¢ and up: 75%(won 96% of 1388)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.