Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold CD Santa Clara, while the market favors Rio Ave FC (78%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: CD Santa Clara (-1.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold CD Santa Clara (75%) · CD Santa Clara at 22¢ · $267 held · ended Sep 6
⚠️
Avoid
CD Santa Clara
4
CD Santa Clara 75%
$266.7
-$148.77
35.4¢ → 22.5¢
-36% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidCD Santa Clara at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Rio Ave FC 78%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | CD Santa Claraavg 36¢ | $390.47 | $244.04 | -$146.43 | 53% 60814-53199 (114013) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | CD Santa Claraavg 23¢ | $13.44 | $13.15 | -$0.29 | 58% 46107-33290 (79397) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Rio Ave FCavg 76¢ | $6.02 | $6.14 | +$0.12 | 50% 37310-36579 (73889) |
3C 0x3ca9...424aCTR<$100 | CD Santa Claraavg 37¢ | $5.55 | $3.38 | -$2.18 | 50% 4291-4295 (8586) |
RN1CTRInvested
$390.47
Value
$244.04
PnL
-$146.43
Record
53%
60814-53199 (114013)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$13.44
Value
$13.15
PnL
-$0.29
Record
58%
46107-33290 (79397)
Invested
$6.02
Value
$6.14
PnL
+$0.12
Record
50%
37310-36579 (73889)
Invested
$5.55
Value
$3.38
PnL
-$2.18
Record
50%
4291-4295 (8586)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.