Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Venezia FC vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 28¢ · $754 held · ends Nov 6

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$754.03

Combined PnL

$13.35

Smart Money Entry

27¢ → 27.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$740.6

Total Shares2,693

Combined PnL+$13.45

No1 trader

Total Value$13.43

Total Shares19

Combined PnL-$0.09

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$1.3K	$356.77	+$6.49	53% 16647-14800 (31447)
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$216.27	$220.27	+$4	64% 9839-5498 (15337)
GC GC-PCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$157.19	$160.1	+$2.91	64% 9875-5563 (15438)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 73¢	$18.52	$13.43	-$0.09	58% 46317-33437 (79754)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$2.4	$2.36	-$0.04	50% 25741-25428 (51169)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.3¢	$1.02	$1.1	+$0.09	51% 25600-24316 (49916)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,297.35

Value

$356.77

PnL

+$6.49

Record

53%

16647-14800 (31447)

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$216.27

Value

$220.27

PnL

+$4

Record

64%

9839-5498 (15337)

GC-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$157.19

Value

$160.1

PnL

+$2.91

Record

64%

9875-5563 (15438)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$18.52

Value

$13.43

PnL

-$0.09

Record

58%

46317-33437 (79754)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.36

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

25741-25428 (51169)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0.09

Record

51%

25600-24316 (49916)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.