Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-10-16?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 75¢ · $343 held · ends Dec 19
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$343.38
-$33
82.9¢ → 75¢
-9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
104h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 85¢ | $251.25 | $223.17 | -$29.56 | 51% 26324-24949 (51273) |
LU lukibazdonauki754<$100 | Yesavg 74¢ | $60.68 | $61.91 | +$1.23 | 61% 960-606 (1566) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Yesavg 84¢ | $42 | $37.75 | -$3.25 | 48% 61881-66739 (128620) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 84¢ | $15.42 | $13.86 | -$1.47 | 58% 47061-33943 (81004) |
YO youcanbuythisbot<$100 | Yesavg 85.6¢ | $6.53 | $6.7 | +$0.05 | 49% 11142-11506 (22648) |
Invested
$251.25
Value
$223.17
PnL
-$29.56
Record
51%
26324-24949 (51273)
Invested
$60.68
Value
$61.91
PnL
+$1.23
Record
61%
960-606 (1566)
Invested
$42
Value
$37.75
PnL
-$3.25
Record
48%
61881-66739 (128620)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$15.42
Value
$13.86
PnL
-$1.47
Record
58%
47061-33943 (81004)
Invested
$6.53
Value
$6.7
PnL
+$0.05
Record
49%
11142-11506 (22648)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.