IF Elfsborg vs. Orgryte IS: O/U 1.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 73¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Over73¢Under27¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$121

Smart Money Entry

82.3¢ → 73¢

-11% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over73%

Under27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,467

Combined PnL-$425.98

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares3,756

Combined PnL+$304.98

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 82¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	-$426.19	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 18.7¢	$696.55	$1.0K	+$309.83	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
DR Dreamwire<$100	Overavg 99¢	$21.62	$21.61	+$0.21	83% 2683-538 (3221)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$12.56	$7.71	-$4.85	50% 11182-10999 (22181)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,186.43

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$426.19

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$696.55

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$309.83

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Dreamwire<$100

Over

Invested

$21.62

Value

$21.61

PnL

+$0.21

Record

83%

2683-538 (3221)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.56

Value

$7.71

PnL

-$4.85

Record

50%

11182-10999 (22181)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.