Consensus PnL $11K · win rate 86% (2690–428, n=3118) · PM monthly #411 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$11.1K
Record
2690W / 428L
Win Rate
86.0%
of 3118 settled
Batting Avg
66.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#307
Source
PM monthly #411
Trades
2,246
Markets
3,466
Volume
$4.3M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 7 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $2.5K · now 71¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (86% of 51)
- Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No $1.6K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $534 · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Djurgardens IF vs. Degerfors IF: O/U 1.5Over $76 · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $74 · now 37¢with the consensus (66% of 53)
- Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?No $61 · now 94¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (67% of 18)
- Malmo FF vs. Hammarby IF: Hammarby IF O/U 1.5Over $28 · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
Specialties
2,511 settled consensus markets · held side won 82% at an average entry of 81¢- NFL
+4 pts
side won 79% of 409 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +1%
- Golf
+3 pts
side won 94% of 50 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +1%
- NHL
+2 pts
side won 95% of 41 · avg entry 93¢
ROI −2%
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 62% of 76 at an average 62¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 5% of 316)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 43% of 128)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 66% of 150)
- 70¢ and up: 76%(won 99% of 1917)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.