Kasımpaşa SK vs. Beşiktaş JK: 1st Half O/U 0.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 50¢ · $594 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 50%
$593.66
$15.73
98.7¢ → 50¢
-49% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 99¢ | $354.89 | $365.79 | +$10.9 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
 RN1 | Underavg 49.2¢ | $205.9 | $209.23 | +$3.33 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Overavg 93¢ | $13.28 | $14.14 | +$0.99 | 77% 3446-1053 (4499) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 44.3¢ | $3.99 | $4.5 | +$0.51 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
Invested
$354.89
Value
$365.79
PnL
+$10.9
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
RN1Invested
$205.9
Value
$209.23
PnL
+$3.33
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$13.28
Value
$14.14
PnL
+$0.99
Record
77%
3446-1053 (4499)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.99
Value
$4.5
PnL
+$0.51
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.