Will Manisa Futbol Kulubu win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.8K
-$6.88
95¢ → 97.9¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$49.54 | 53% 62321-54560 (116881) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 78.9¢ | $108.7 | $123.67 | +$14.97 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
PE pelik<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $68.49 | $68.46 | +$0.03 | 99% 5179-74 (5253) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $41.47 | $53.12 | +$11.64 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
WI Winning2...CTR | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $2.5K | $1.25 | -$83.06 | 33% 1169-2405 (3574) |
RN1Invested
$1,496.92
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$49.54
Record
53%
62321-54560 (116881)
Invested
$108.7
Value
$123.67
PnL
+$14.97
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$68.49
Value
$68.46
PnL
+$0.03
Record
99%
5179-74 (5253)
Invested
$41.47
Value
$53.12
PnL
+$11.64
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$2,499.85
Value
$1.25
PnL
-$83.06
Record
33%
1169-2405 (3574)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.