Consensus PnL -$20K · win rate 32% (874–1899, n=2773) · PM monthly #644 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-19.5K
Record
874W / 1899L
Win Rate
32.0%
of 2773 settled
Batting Avg
80.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1594
Source
PM monthly #644
Record (90 d)
278/902 · 31%
Trades
2,945
Markets
3,397
Volume
$2.2M
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Specialties
3,333 settled consensus markets · held side won 31% at an average entry of 31¢- NHL
+4 pts
side won 47% of 165 · avg entry 43¢
ROI 0%
- NFL
+7 pts
side won 41% of 70 · avg entry 34¢
ROI +2%
- Tennis
+4 pts
side won 39% of 122 · avg entry 35¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 15% of 20 at an average 46¢ entry (−31 pts against the price), ROI −26%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 52%(won 19% of 1720)
- 30–50¢: 39%(won 39% of 1298)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 61% of 292)
- 70¢ and up: 1%(won 87% of 23)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.