Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Exact Score: Umraniyespor 1 - 0 Boluspor?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 40¢ · $547 held · ended Oct 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$546.68
$403.64
Research grade
NeutralYes at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR | Yes | $231.66 | $231.66 | +$174.55 | 24% 451-1391 (1842) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 14¢ | $39.07 | $138.14 | +$99.07 | 51% 25716-24429 (50145) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yes | $93.37 | $93.37 | +$70.35 | 36% 5883-10617 (16500) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $18.37 | $64.95 | +$46.58 | 58% 51698-37586 (89284) |
YO youcanbuythisbotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.6¢ | $5.48 | $18.56 | +$13.09 | 49% 11141-11501 (22642) |
Invested
$231.66
Value
$231.66
PnL
+$174.55
Record
24%
451-1391 (1842)
Invested
$39.07
Value
$138.14
PnL
+$99.07
Record
51%
25716-24429 (50145)
Invested
$93.37
Value
$93.37
PnL
+$70.35
Record
36%
5883-10617 (16500)
Invested
$18.37
Value
$64.95
PnL
+$46.58
Record
58%
51698-37586 (89284)
Invested
$5.48
Value
$18.56
PnL
+$13.09
Record
49%
11141-11501 (22642)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.