Consensus PnL $150K · win rate 33% (2840–5872, n=8712) · PM monthly #82 · holds 41 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$150.3K
Record
2840W / 5872L
Win Rate
33.0%
of 8712 settled
Batting Avg
38.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2498
Source
PM monthly #82
Record (90 d)
835/3222 · 26%
Trades
8,601
Markets
11,565
Volume
$1.5M
Top consensus positions
41 in listed consensus markets · 39 of 41 on the consensus side (95%)- Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?Yes $122 · now 98¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (78% of 9)
- Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?Yes $102 · now 90¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?Yes $74 · now 57¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?Yes $44 · now 48¢ · in at 23¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31?Yes $35 · now 59¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (75% of 5)
- Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?Yes $21 · now 24¢ · in at 5¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $18 · now 0¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (100% of 30)
- Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $18 · now 0¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (100% of 30)
Specialties
1,570 settled consensus markets · held side won 34% at an average entry of 37¢- MLB
+4 pts
side won 21% of 19 · avg entry 18¢
ROI +5%
- Finance
+6 pts
side won 54% of 13 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +14%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 43% of 743 at an average 47¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI +9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 59%(won 1% of 922)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 8% of 107)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 59% of 29)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 97% of 512)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.