Spread: Umraniyespor (-1.5)
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Boluspor (100%) · Boluspor at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 14
⚖️
Neutral
Boluspor
4
Boluspor 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
$513.16
75.4¢ → 97.5¢
+29% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralBoluspor at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Boluspor. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Bolusporavg 83.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$209.46 | 58% 49422-35504 (84926) |
FL Flaznorp | Bolusporavg 60¢ | $460.08 | $747.63 | +$287.55 | 51% 23350-22134 (45484) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Umraniyesporavg 21.6¢ | $208.72 | $50.04 | -$158.67 | 50% 27131-27060 (54191) |
| └ Boluspor leg | Bolusporavg 60¢ | $17.13 | $27.84 | +$10.71 | |
| └ Umraniyespor leg | Umraniyesporavg 21.6¢ | $191.52 | $22.21 | -$169.38 | |
 RN1<$100 | Bolusporavg 67¢ | $30.45 | $44.32 | +$13.86 | 53% 58869-51174 (110043) |
IW iWasEnough<$100 | Bolusporavg 78.8¢ | $19.52 | $21.81 | +$2.29 | 51% 11618-11037 (22655) |
Invested
$1,294.86
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$209.46
Record
58%
49422-35504 (84926)
Invested
$460.08
Value
$747.63
PnL
+$287.55
Record
51%
23350-22134 (45484)
Invested
$208.72
Value
$50.04
PnL
-$158.67
Record
50%
27131-27060 (54191)
Both legs:
RN1<$100Invested
$30.45
Value
$44.32
PnL
+$13.86
Record
53%
58869-51174 (110043)
Invested
$19.52
Value
$21.81
PnL
+$2.29
Record
51%
11618-11037 (22655)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.