Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 3.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 61¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 56%
$1.7K
-$13.72
59¢ → 60.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 59¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$11.55 | 51% 25736-24442 (50178) |
NM NM-P | Overavg 59¢ | $123.76 | $125.72 | +$1.96 | 64% 9921-5527 (15448) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 60¢ | $120 | $121 | +$1 | 56% 7911-6321 (14232) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Overavg 57.2¢ | $60.67 | $63.07 | -$0.53 | 46% 8591-10242 (18833) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $38.81 | $36.1 | -$2.71 | 64% 9962-5595 (15557) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $26.15 | $24.9 | -$1.25 | 48% 61037-65871 (126908) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $11.71 | $10.89 | -$0.14 | 50% 28416-28324 (56740) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 60¢ | $9 | $9.08 | +$0.07 | 55% 9735-8125 (17860) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $8.54 | $7.94 | -$0.6 | 50% 25814-25509 (51323) |
Invested
$1,274.61
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$11.55
Record
51%
25736-24442 (50178)
Invested
$123.76
Value
$125.72
PnL
+$1.96
Record
64%
9921-5527 (15448)
0xheavy888Invested
$120
Value
$121
PnL
+$1
Record
56%
7911-6321 (14232)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$60.67
Value
$63.07
PnL
-$0.53
Record
46%
8591-10242 (18833)
Invested
$38.81
Value
$36.1
PnL
-$2.71
Record
64%
9962-5595 (15557)
Invested
$26.15
Value
$24.9
PnL
-$1.25
Record
48%
61037-65871 (126908)
Invested
$11.71
Value
$10.89
PnL
-$0.14
Record
50%
28416-28324 (56740)
Invested
$9
Value
$9.08
PnL
+$0.07
Record
55%
9735-8125 (17860)
Invested
$8.54
Value
$7.94
PnL
-$0.6
Record
50%
25814-25509 (51323)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.