Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-11-05?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 60¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$1.1K
$29.28
57.5¢ → 59.5¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 56.6¢ | $370.45 | $385.94 | +$15.5 | 51% 25691-24411 (50102) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 58¢ | $324.92 | $330.53 | +$5.6 | 64% 9911-5524 (15435) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 58¢ | $258.32 | $262.89 | +$4.57 | 64% 9954-5592 (15546) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 41.1¢ | $101.88 | $43.57 | +$2.34 | 58% 46650-33619 (80269) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 60.2¢ | $43.95 | $43.07 | -$0.88 | 51% 1367-1324 (2691) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $23.21 | $25.36 | +$2.15 | 50% 21143-21403 (42546) |
Invested
$370.45
Value
$385.94
PnL
+$15.5
Record
51%
25691-24411 (50102)
Invested
$324.92
Value
$330.53
PnL
+$5.6
Record
64%
9911-5524 (15435)
Invested
$258.32
Value
$262.89
PnL
+$4.57
Record
64%
9954-5592 (15546)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$101.88
Value
$43.57
PnL
+$2.34
Record
58%
46650-33619 (80269)
Invested
$43.95
Value
$43.07
PnL
-$0.88
Record
51%
1367-1324 (2691)
Invested
$23.21
Value
$25.36
PnL
+$2.15
Record
50%
21143-21403 (42546)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.