Will MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva win on 2026-11-05?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 56¢ · $319 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$318.92
$5.43
54.3¢ → 55.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 53¢ | $169.07 | $114.4 | +$5.27 | 58% 46658-33622 (80280) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 55¢ | $110.92 | $110.92 | -$0 | 64% 9920-5524 (15444) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 56.2¢ | $30.82 | $30.14 | -$0.68 | 51% 1368-1329 (2697) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $26.5 | $27.5 | +$1 | 48% 61030-65863 (126893) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 55.2¢ | $27.29 | $27.17 | -$0.12 | 51% 25699-24415 (50114) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 55.2¢ | $8.84 | $8.8 | -$0.04 | 53% 1408-1254 (2662) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$169.07
Value
$114.4
PnL
+$5.27
Record
58%
46658-33622 (80280)
Invested
$110.92
Value
$110.92
PnL
-$0
Record
64%
9920-5524 (15444)
Invested
$30.82
Value
$30.14
PnL
-$0.68
Record
51%
1368-1329 (2697)
Invested
$26.5
Value
$27.5
PnL
+$1
Record
48%
61030-65863 (126893)
Invested
$27.29
Value
$27.17
PnL
-$0.12
Record
51%
25699-24415 (50114)
Invested
$8.84
Value
$8.8
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
1408-1254 (2662)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.