Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (69%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-11-05?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 32¢ · $682 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$682.16
-$2.2
33.2¢ → 31.5¢
-5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 33.9¢ | $270.92 | $263.51 | -$7.42 | 51% 25600-24316 (49916) |
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 33¢ | $161.28 | $158.85 | -$2.43 | 64% 9875-5563 (15438) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Noavg 32¢ | $108.17 | $116.62 | +$8.45 | 50% 21104-21351 (42455) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 33¢ | $115.5 | $115.5 | -$0 | 64% 9839-5498 (15337) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 33.7¢ | $15.79 | $15.44 | -$0.35 | 53% 16647-14800 (31447) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 33.7¢ | $12.7 | $12.24 | -$0.46 | 50% 25741-25428 (51169) |
Invested
$270.92
Value
$263.51
PnL
-$7.42
Record
51%
25600-24316 (49916)
Invested
$161.28
Value
$158.85
PnL
-$2.43
Record
64%
9875-5563 (15438)
Invested
$108.17
Value
$116.62
PnL
+$8.45
Record
50%
21104-21351 (42455)
Invested
$115.5
Value
$115.5
PnL
-$0
Record
64%
9839-5498 (15337)
Invested
$15.79
Value
$15.44
PnL
-$0.35
Record
53%
16647-14800 (31447)
Invested
$12.7
Value
$12.24
PnL
-$0.46
Record
50%
25741-25428 (51169)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.